Week Three Picks, Random Ruminations

 About halfway through last Thursday's game, watching the Bills clearly outplay the Miami Dolphins, I looked at my picks for the week and thought I had a budding disaster.

Well, sort of. I don't put money on these things, which tends to limit the damage.

But I picked Miami and gave 2 1/2 points, so that one went south pretty fast. Then it dawned on me why the Packers were three-point underdogs against the Colts.  Starting QB Jordan Love was injured. I saw the play where he got hurt, the light from the TV struck my retinas and it registered in my consciousness and everything.

Then, days later, I made my picks. And I forgot Love was out, and that Malik Willis, awful with the Titans last year, would be starting. I forgot because I'm an idiot, apparently.

Should I change the pick? The game was still days away. I make my own rules here, it's my damn blog, and nobody is reading it, anyway. What's the harm? The game hasn't started.

Nope. I'm not going to change anything past the beginning of the first game of the week, usually Thursday, so as to leave the date & time of the post as it was. I rode with the Packers pick, and surprise, I won. Or they won, in another, more accurate way of looking at it.

Not only was the week not a disaster, but I went 10-5-1 against the spread (ATS) to up my record for the year to date to 19-11-2. Had I bet $110 to win $100 on each game this year, I would be up $690. So far, I've done well, beating experts at major websites and people who charge money for their insights. Suck it, experts! 

No, I am not going to bet real money on this stuff. Part of being smart is understanding how much you don't know, and every week, there will be much I don't know. The one thing I do know, however, is that I can't afford a disastrous week, like say that 4-9 week of picks I put up last year. A couple of those could do some damage with real money on the line.

Nor would I recommend, at this point anyway, that anyone put up real money based on my picks. Unlike certain celebrity politicians, I am capable of feeling guilt. I do not want the responsibility of losing some poor fool a bunch of money, unless, of course, I am the beneficiary.

So, as always, take these picks with a grain of salt. Bet no money! Gambling used to be a sin, and may be again someday!

Oh, who am I kidding. Nobody's reading this. I bet there isn't one bastard still out there, is there.

Is there?

Thursday

Patriots +6.5 vs. Jets

Sunday

Giants +6.5 vs. Browns

Bears +1.5 vs. Colts

Vikings +2.5 vs. Texans

Saints -1.5 vs. Eagles

Chargers +2 vs. Steelers

Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Broncos

Packers +3 vs. Titans

Raiders -5.5 vs. Panthers

Dolphins +5 vs. Seahawks

Cardinals +3 vs. Lions

Cowboys +1 vs. Ravens

49ers -7.5 vs. Rams

Falcons +4 vs. Chiefs

Monday

Bills -5.5 vs. Jaguars

Commanders +8 vs. Bengals

Last week: 10-5-1

Season to date: 19-11-2

Week Two Picks, Thoughts on Week One If I Think of Any

Week two of the NFL season arrives tonight, so I'm just going to keep this somewhat short and sweet in order to leave plenty of time to lay around and nap and so forth today, as any retired person should aspire too. One is never too old to have aspirations.

Week one went pretty well for me, especially considering I don't watch preseason games or read up on injury reports or even think much about the games before I make the pick. This makes that first week or two especially perilous, although it probably helps that I buy a season preview magazine every year and am aware of major trades and free agent signings. In the past I have avoided the early weeks when making picks, as well as avoiding the final week of mostly meaningless games (which I intend to do again this year). 

Anyway, I went 9-6-1 against the spread in week one. That earns me $240 in imaginary money (imaginary like Monopoly money, I mean, nothing to do with the square root of -1). Or maybe it's more like my own cryptocurrency exchange, which I have decided to call DickCoin. 

Spell check has helpfully informed me that "DickCoin" is not a word.

So how do I make my picks? I look for teams that I think are over or under valued by the public, as the oddsmakers, in their attempt to bring in equal amounts of money on both sides, will weight the point spread toward over valued teams and away from under valued teams. I tend to pick teams that got blown out the week before, assuming that these people are professionals and will play better the following week. Unless, of course, the team simply sucks (looking at you, Panthers). Also, since I believe my guidelines work slightly more often than not, I pick all the games, because the more chances I have, the more likely it is that my slight statistical advantage will show itself. That's just math.

Point spreads over a touchdown make me very nervous; picking the favorite in those games, I feel, leaves me too open to the dread "back door cover," where the loser scores a late, meaningless touchdown to cover. I forgot this in week one when I picked the Bengals, though since they lost anyway, somehow, inexplicably, to the Patriots, it didn't really matter.

Other quick thoughts: the NFL needs to do a better job vetting the fields in these international games. The game in Brazil was played on a hockey rink. The two dumbest franchises in the league right now seem to be the Panthers and the Browns, both of whom made very bad decisions at the quarterback position and may be set back for years to come. The Panthers traded what ended up being the first pick in a quarterback-rich draft for a guy roughly my size in a draft not so rich, and the Browns traded three first-rounders and gave a huge, fully guaranteed contract to a guy who didn't play for most of two years and is a total creep.

Incidentally, that makes eight first round picks the Browns have spent on quarterbacks in 26 drafts since they re-entered the league in 1999. None has worked.

Okay, not so short and definitely not sweet. Enough, then. Picks for week two:

Thursday

Dolphins -2.5 vs. Bills

Sunday

Raiders +8.5 vs. Ravens

Chargers -6 vs. Panthers

Saints +6.5 vs. Cowboys

Buccaneers +7.5 vs. Lions

Packers +3 vs. Colts

Jaguars -3 vs. Browns

49ers -5.5 vs. Vikings

Patriots +3.5 vs. Seahawks

Jets -3.5 vs. Titans

Giants +1.5 vs. Commanders

Rams +1 vs. Cardinals

Bengals +5.5 vs. Chiefs

Steelers -2.5 vs. Broncos

Texans -6 vs. Bears

Monday

Falcons +6.5 vs. Eagles

Last week: 9-6-1

Year To Date: 9-6-1

NFL Predictions for 2024

 In the interest of filling the many idle hours of my retirement, I have decided to bring my old sports blog back to life and write about this NFL season, on a regular, weekly basis, assuming my general lack of self-discipline and laziness and other personal flaws allow.

In the past, I have used this blog solely for Onion-style fake sports stories, intended as humor, and while I reserve the right to write more of those, I'm going to play it straighter here. Hey, sports is serious stuff, amiright? Also, I have another outlet, really, for my humorous stuff (see killedbyfish.blogspot.com).

I still have some work to do to clean up the silly stuff here, like the Ken doll that sort of resembles George W. Bush, to give myself a ghost of a chance of being taken seriously. I mean, who's going to pay attention to a guy who thinks he's a Ken doll who thinks he's George Bush?

Yeah, this is serious stuff. I'm going to start with my predictions for division winners, playoff teams, and the Super Bowl, and (at least for now, as I write this paragraph), make picks vs. the spread on all the week's games. Full disclosure: I never actually bet actual money on any of these games, because 1. I really hate stress, and just being right/wrong provides plenty of excitement and motivation, and 2. I don't have any actual money. Also, 3. gambling was widely considered to be sinful and a sign of depravity before it became the wholesome family activity we know it as today.

Also full disclosure: I've been a Kansas City Chiefs fan since 1968.

So without further ado, let's start with my predictions for the season.

AFC Division winners:

Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs

wild cards: New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers

NFC Division winners:

Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers

wild cards: Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams

AFC Championship: Baltimore over Buffalo

NFC Championship: San Francisco over Dallas

Super Bowl LVIV (if I got the stupid Roman numerals right):

BALTIMORE OVER SAN FRANCISCO

Just so you know: I've been making Super Bowl predictions since 1986. That's 38 years, and in that time I've correctly picked the winner four times (10.5%) and correctly picked a conference champion 15 times (19.7%). I was much better at it the first ten years, hitting on two winners and seven conference champions. The last decade or so has been rather lean.

And now, my picks vs. the spread for week one. You can pretty safely disregard these, assuredly, since I'm not even confident enough, you might say, to put one red cent on any of them.

Thursday:

Ravens +3 vs. Chiefs

Friday:

Eagles -2.5 vs. Packers

Sunday:

Falcons -3 vs. Steelers

Bills -6.5 vs. Cardinals

Titans +3.5 vs. Bears

Bengals -8.5 vs. Patriots

Colts +3 vs. Texans

Jaguars +3.5 vs. Dolphins

Saints -4 vs. Panthers

Giants +1.5 vs. Vikings

Chargers -3 vs. Raiders

Broncos +6 vs. Seahawks

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Browns

Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Commanders

Lions -3.5 vs. Rams

Monday:

49ers -4 vs. Jets

And that is that. As Dak Prescott would say, "here we go!"

I will be tabulating the results from week to week, counting up right and wrong picks, as well as pretending that I have $110 to wager on each game (winning $100 for a correct pick, losing the $110 for each incorrect one). Again, this will provide me with plenty of motivation to put a few minutes of thought into it, as I hate being wrong, hate stress, and, frankly, my make-believe money is roughly as real to me as cryptocurrency.

Thank you, enjoy the games!

Guys In Seahawks Uniforms Clear Favorite To Win Super Bowl XLVI

As NFL training camp approaches, the oddsmakers, pundits and prognosticators are, as usual, hard at work establishing the betting favorites for the upcoming season. And despite the ongoing difficulties with the labor situation and the lockout by the owners, the 2011 season is no different.

But this year, unlike in the recent past, the experts are largely in agreement as to whom the team to beat in 2011 will be: The Guys In The Seahawk Uniforms.

“Definitely the best team out there,” said one Las Vegas oddsmaker, who requested anonymity. “Absolutely the class of the league, depending on what players they get.”

As is usually the case, the championship will likely be determined at the game’s most important position, giving the Seahawks Guys a clear advantage.

“I mean, you know they’ll be strong at quarterback, because they’ll probably sign Jeff Garcia or somebody,” said the oddsmaker. “And that offensive line. I can only imagine how good they’re going to be.”

But that sentiment is not necessarily unanimous.

“You can never count out the guys in Titans uniforms,” said a rival oddsmaker. “They’ll be strong up front on both sides of the ball. Don’t forget, they have a lot of overweight gym teachers in that part of the country.”

Cutler's Injury Doesn't Hurt Other Players At All

When Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler stood on the sidelines for most of the second half in Sunday's NFC Championship Game against Green Bay, he must have known there was a storm brewing.

The Bears' starting quarterback left the game early in the second half with a knee injury and didn't return. The Bears went on to lose, 21-14.

Many NFL players tweeted and texted during and after the contest, questioning Cutler's toughness and desire for coming out of a game of such magnitude. Although his Bear teammates were quick to jump to his defense, other current and former NFL players were in near-unanimous agreement: Cutler's injury, a possibly torn MCL, didn't hurt them at all.

"There's no way I would let an injury to Jay Cutler keep me out of a championship game like that," said a relaxed Maurice Jones-Drew, lounging by the poolside in Miami. "I would tough it out and play no matter how badly he was hurt."

"Of course I would play," said linebacker Derrick Brooks , grittily working his way through another round of golf. "As long as the injury happened to him, I would absolutely refuse to come off the field."

"I'm not questioning his toughness, just his manhood," said Deion Sanders, who hasn't played in years and never tackled anybody when he did. "I could've played that game running backwards. Just like I played every game."

Cutler, who gave way to backups Todd Collins and Caleb Hanie in the third quarter of Sunday's loss to the Packers, was said to be distraught over the treatment from his fellow professionals, and coach Lovie Smith indicated that the decision was made by the medical staff to pull the fifth-year starter. It was claimed that the knee, which Cutler could not remember injuring on any specific play, was having stability issues and prevented the quarterback from planting and throwing. Still, other players were having none of it.

"I don't care how much pain he's in," chimed in Cardinals safety Kerry Rhodes, grimacing from a deep tissue massage. "They would have to drag me off the field. We all play hurt this time of year. I mean when we're playing, that is."

Cutler is expected to have surgery on his knee, which is fine.

Back to Killed By Fish

TCU Announces Move To NFC West

FT. WORTH--Apparently tired of being left out of the national championship picture and seeking better access to more lucrative postseason games, TCU has announced it will flee the troubled Mountain West Conference and begin play in the NFC West in 2012.

The board of trustees voted unanimously to accept the invitation to join the NFL, making it the fourth league for the Horned Frogs since the old Southwest Conference broke up in 1995. The team played in the WAC from 1996-2000 and C-USA from 2001-2004 before mistakenly joining the YMCA in 2005.

The move is seen as good for all the parties involved, with the obvious exception of the MWC and new member Boise State, whom no one really cares about.

"This obviously adds a lot of credibillity to the division," said NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, who extended the invitation to the Horned Frogs last spring. "It not only adds strength to what has become an embarrassingly weak group of teams, it gives the league a team in Texas that doesn't routinely underachieve. And it's good for TCU, since they can expect to be competitive immediately."

The St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks currently sit atop the NFC West with 5-6 records; although neither is ranked in anyone's top 25, the division's AQ status means the winner qualifies for the NFL playoffs no matter what.

"The situation in college football is very fluid," said Mountain West Commissioner Craig Thompson, referring to the departures of Utah, BYU and TCU from his conference in the near future. "And by fluid, I mean an unforgiving ocean sucking the MWC down to a watery grave. Arrrr. Davy Jones' locker, and all that."

"Glub.  Glub, I tell you."

TCU Athletic Director Chris Del Conte downplayed the MWC's struggles retaining teams and lack of access to higher-paying bowl games; the reason for the move was simple.  "We're not playing on that damn blue field.  No freaking way."

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Celtics End Heat's Unbeaten Season

The Boston Celtics ended Miami's quest for the NBA's first unbeaten season tonight with an 88-80 victory, snapping the Heat's winning streak at 0 in a showdown of two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.

LeBron James led all scorers with 31, while teammates Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh combined for 21 points, shooting a whopping 7-for-27 from the field. Ray Allen paced the Celtics with 20 and Shaquille O'Neal had nine in his Boston debut.

The Heat, with the celebrated trio of superstars having joined forces in a clear violation of the Rules of the Playground, were on pace to join the NFL's Dolphins as the second team from South Beach to finish with an unblemished record. But the Celtics, with balanced scoring on their home court, took a 15-point lead into the locker room at halftime and made it stand up on this night.

Miami is now on pace to snap the record for losses in a season, set by the Philadelphia 76ers in 1973 when they finished with a record of 9-73.

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NFL Seeks To Increase Understanding Of Concussions By Causing More

NEW YORK--The National Football League, responding to increasing concern over the damage caused by playing professional football, has announced a new program aimed at increasing understanding of the effects of repeated concussions.

"We want to get out in front of this issue and take a leadership role," said NFL commissioner Roger Goodell at a press conference yesterday. "With this in mind, and knowing that much more data is needed regarding concussions than we currently have, we want to increase the schedule from 16 to 18 games. The increased amount of information available will spur our understanding and help us find a solution that much sooner."

The proposal to lengthen the season will be part of the discussion regarding a new Collective Bargaining Agreement with the NFL Player's Aassociation, and will need to be approved by that organization before it can take effect.

"The players must realize that they have to be part of the solution," said Goodell. "We need as many of their brains as possible for autopsies, as soon as we can get them."

"We sincerely hope this will not become a divisive issue in our talks with them."

The proposal, if implemented, is expected to add hundreds of collisions per season for each player as well as necessitating expanded rosters, increasing the supply of brains to study.

"We have to get ahead of this problem," Goodell went on to say. "Without information, we're just butting our heads against the wall. We can't just wait for worse problems to smack us in the face. We need to put our heads together now and come up with a program that has real impact. "

"It's time to put on our thinking helmets and use them as weapons in this fight."

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Woods Double-Bogeys Marriage, Misses Cut

Tiger Woods, continuing a disappointing trend that has seen him not win a major since the 2008 U.S. Open, double-bogeyed the last hole of his marriage and failed to make the cut with Elin, his wife of three years.

It was announced recently that the couple had officially divorced and that a $750 million settlement had been reached, the result of a series of misplays on the back nine by the golfer.

Trouble began on the 15th hole when the man many have proclaimed to be the best golfer in history blew an easy three-foot putt for par by failing to remain faithful to a wealthy, blonde supermodel wife. On the next hole, Woods sliced badly into the trees by using his regular cellphone to arrange dalliances with mistresses, and compounded that by "grounding his club" in a bunker with another mistress two shots later.

But that was nothing compared to his error on 18, where he neglected to use his driver and, attempting to escape from the rough, hit the mailbox at the end of the fairway.

"I have no one to blame but myself," said a dejected Woods after the debacle. "Unless of course you count my caddy, who should have known the course better."

Although Woods' longtime caddy Steve Williams could not be reached for comment, it is assumed his reply would point out Tiger's repeated unwillingness to leave his 5-wood in the bag.

Back to Killed By Fish

Clemens Indicted For Third Ear On Forehead

Roger Clemens, former major-league pitcher and 11-time all-star, winner of seven Cy Young awards, was indicted this week by a grand jury for perjury before Congress in 2008. The evidence, which the grand jury found "compelling, and sort of creepy" consisted mostly of recent photographs of Clemens sporting a new third ear that grew out of his forehead.

The new appendage cast doubt on Clemens' previous testimony, in which he claimed never to have used steroids and if he did, "I would have a third ear growing out of my forehead or something."

Because he is facing up to five years of prison time, Clemens is expected to spare no expense in putting together a crack legal team as well as a new group of friends to throw under the bus. Although it is not known what sort of defense will be presented, experts expect it to mostly consist of casting aspersions on others while pointing out his sparkling record as a pitcher.

"I would never have used steroids, and if I had, I would have little noses on my feet," said Clemens, replendently dressed in a dark three-piece suit and clown shoes. "In my whole career, I only drank the castor oil my mother gave me while grandma injected some vitamins into my eyeballs. I asked if they were giving me steroids, and President Lincoln said no. And I believed them. And I won 354 games."

"And if I used all these fancy growth hormones and stuff, why am I so immature? It doesn't make sense."

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Pitino Set To Unleash New "15-Second Offense"

Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino, preparing for the 2010-11 season while appearing in court in the extortion trial of Karen Cunagin Sypher, has announced that the Cardinals will unveil a new, fast-paced offensive system he calls "the 15-Second Offense."

Predicated on speed and built around deft ball-handling in the open court, the offense will seek to get a shot off within 15 seconds on each and every posession.

"I know it won't satisfy everybody, but it will make for some exciting basketball," said the coach, speaking to a group of university alumni last weekend. "It's all about quickly setting the table and scoring fast. You have to get right on top and push the ball up the court, keep the pressure up. This will lead to a lot of quick spurts."

Pitino also pointed out the importance of crashing the boards after the initial shot. "The ball goes up quickly, before the defense is ready, so there are a lot of sloppy second opportunites," he said. "Guys have to be ready to jump in and take advantage." Pitino said long-time aide Tim Sypher would be responsible for teaching this important skill to the players, as "he's got the most experience in this aspect of the game."

When asked if a deeper, better conditioned team might catch the Cardinals off-guard in such a fast-paced game, Pitino responded, "no, no, no. We won't get caught. It's only going to last fifteen seconds, and Larry Bird is not going to walk through that door."

Bradford, Tebow Join Select Group That Includes Ryan Leaf

Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow, the two Heisman-winning quarterbacks hopeful of translating their remarkable college success into professional stardom, were both taken in the first round of Thursday night’s NFL draft.

They join an illustrious group of star quarterbacks previously taken with first round picks, a group that includes such luminaries as Art Schlister, Kelly Stouffer, Jim Druckenmiller and Ryan Leaf.

Bradford was taken with the top overall pick by the St. Louis Rams, despite a shoulder injury that cost him nearly all of the 2009 season at Oklahoma.

“I am looking forward to the opportunity to play in St. Louis which is a great city and I am looking forward to playing there in that great city,” said a crushed, glassy-eyed Bradford , staring soullessly at the cameras while fashioning his new Rams jersey into a noose. “It is...like...a dream come... true...somehow.”

Although throwing with a surgically-repaired shoulder, Bradford impressed the St. Louis staff enough to doom himself to years of failure with the hapless Rams, who seem to enjoy watching their quarterbacks get beaten up.

Tebow was taken with the 25th pick in the draft by the Denver Broncos despite a new throwing motion he’s never actually used and a propensity for embarrassing crying jags.

But unlike Bradford, he seemed genuinely pleased at the prospect of playing for his new team.

“I am happy to be going to Denver, which being the mile high city, is that much closer to heaven,” said Tebow, who mistakenly believes that God lives in the sky. “It is a great opportunity, and I just want to thank the Lord for not going all Tower of Babel on the Mile High city.”

Bradford eagerly anticipating his pro career.

NCAA Office Pool? Some Guy Named Chalk Always Wins

As Selection Sunday for the NCAA basketball tournament approaches, millions of fans are waiting eagerly to begin filling out the brackets, tossing their ballcaps into the ring in thousands of office pools across the nation.

But many more are opting out this year. With the tough economy, some feel the entry fee for the office pool is just wasted money.

“I won’t be entering this year,” said one random office worker on the street in New York. “I’d just be throwing away the money. I’ve entered in the past, and that guy Chalk always kicks everybody’s ass. I think he works in accounting or something. Obviously he’s got some complicated mathematical formula he uses.”

Strangely, workers at other, unrelated companies and in whole other industries in far away cities also mentioned “Chalk” as the guy to beat in the pool, although that happens only once every few years, at most.

“I don’t know how he does it every year,” said a human resources specialist in Seattle. “I try to pick all the upsets in the early rounds, and I get a few of them, but I always seem to come up short of teams in the Final Four. It’s like Chalk has some special information on who is likely to make it that far.”

A software designer in Los Angeles said, “he’s got to be using some seriously advanced algorithms, and probably a super high-speed, special purpose computer. He’s getting some very meaningful numbers from somewhere.”

Chalk, whose last name is evidently Pix or Pickz, could not be reached for comment, although he is expected to have his bracket completed by Monday morning, as always.