About halfway through last Thursday's game, watching the Bills clearly outplay the Miami Dolphins, I looked at my picks for the week and thought I had a budding disaster.
Well, sort of. I don't put money on these things, which tends to limit the damage.
But I picked Miami and gave 2 1/2 points, so that one went south pretty fast. Then it dawned on me why the Packers were three-point underdogs against the Colts. Starting QB Jordan Love was injured. I saw the play where he got hurt, the light from the TV struck my retinas and it registered in my consciousness and everything.
Then, days later, I made my picks. And I forgot Love was out, and that Malik Willis, awful with the Titans last year, would be starting. I forgot because I'm an idiot, apparently.
Should I change the pick? The game was still days away. I make my own rules here, it's my damn blog, and nobody is reading it, anyway. What's the harm? The game hasn't started.
Nope. I'm not going to change anything past the beginning of the first game of the week, usually Thursday, so as to leave the date & time of the post as it was. I rode with the Packers pick, and surprise, I won. Or they won, in another, more accurate way of looking at it.
Not only was the week not a disaster, but I went 10-5-1 against the spread (ATS) to up my record for the year to date to 19-11-2. Had I bet $110 to win $100 on each game this year, I would be up $690. So far, I've done well, beating experts at major websites and people who charge money for their insights. Suck it, experts!
No, I am not going to bet real money on this stuff. Part of being smart is understanding how much you don't know, and every week, there will be much I don't know. The one thing I do know, however, is that I can't afford a disastrous week, like say that 4-9 week of picks I put up last year. A couple of those could do some damage with real money on the line.
Nor would I recommend, at this point anyway, that anyone put up real money based on my picks. Unlike certain celebrity politicians, I am capable of feeling guilt. I do not want the responsibility of losing some poor fool a bunch of money, unless, of course, I am the beneficiary.
So, as always, take these picks with a grain of salt. Bet no money! Gambling used to be a sin, and may be again someday!
Oh, who am I kidding. Nobody's reading this. I bet there isn't one bastard still out there, is there.
Is there?
Thursday
Patriots +6.5 vs. Jets
Sunday
Giants +6.5 vs. Browns
Bears +1.5 vs. Colts
Vikings +2.5 vs. Texans
Saints -1.5 vs. Eagles
Chargers +2 vs. Steelers
Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Broncos
Packers +3 vs. Titans
Raiders -5.5 vs. Panthers
Dolphins +5 vs. Seahawks
Cardinals +3 vs. Lions
Cowboys +1 vs. Ravens
49ers -7.5 vs. Rams
Falcons +4 vs. Chiefs
Monday
Bills -5.5 vs. Jaguars
Commanders +8 vs. Bengals
Last week: 10-5-1
Season to date: 19-11-2
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