Week two of the NFL season arrives tonight, so I'm just going to keep this somewhat short and sweet in order to leave plenty of time to lay around and nap and so forth today, as any retired person should aspire too. One is never too old to have aspirations.
Week one went pretty well for me, especially considering I don't watch preseason games or read up on injury reports or even think much about the games before I make the pick. This makes that first week or two especially perilous, although it probably helps that I buy a season preview magazine every year and am aware of major trades and free agent signings. In the past I have avoided the early weeks when making picks, as well as avoiding the final week of mostly meaningless games (which I intend to do again this year).
Anyway, I went 9-6-1 against the spread in week one. That earns me $240 in imaginary money (imaginary like Monopoly money, I mean, nothing to do with the square root of -1). Or maybe it's more like my own cryptocurrency exchange, which I have decided to call DickCoin.
Spell check has helpfully informed me that "DickCoin" is not a word.
So how do I make my picks? I look for teams that I think are over or under valued by the public, as the oddsmakers, in their attempt to bring in equal amounts of money on both sides, will weight the point spread toward over valued teams and away from under valued teams. I tend to pick teams that got blown out the week before, assuming that these people are professionals and will play better the following week. Unless, of course, the team simply sucks (looking at you, Panthers). Also, since I believe my guidelines work slightly more often than not, I pick all the games, because the more chances I have, the more likely it is that my slight statistical advantage will show itself. That's just math.
Point spreads over a touchdown make me very nervous; picking the favorite in those games, I feel, leaves me too open to the dread "back door cover," where the loser scores a late, meaningless touchdown to cover. I forgot this in week one when I picked the Bengals, though since they lost anyway, somehow, inexplicably, to the Patriots, it didn't really matter.
Other quick thoughts: the NFL needs to do a better job vetting the fields in these international games. The game in Brazil was played on a hockey rink. The two dumbest franchises in the league right now seem to be the Panthers and the Browns, both of whom made very bad decisions at the quarterback position and may be set back for years to come. The Panthers traded what ended up being the first pick in a quarterback-rich draft for a guy roughly my size in a draft not so rich, and the Browns traded three first-rounders and gave a huge, fully guaranteed contract to a guy who didn't play for most of two years and is a total creep.
Incidentally, that makes eight first round picks the Browns have spent on quarterbacks in 26 drafts since they re-entered the league in 1999. None has worked.
Okay, not so short and definitely not sweet. Enough, then. Picks for week two:
Thursday
Dolphins -2.5 vs. Bills
Sunday
Raiders +8.5 vs. Ravens
Chargers -6 vs. Panthers
Saints +6.5 vs. Cowboys
Buccaneers +7.5 vs. Lions
Packers +3 vs. Colts
Jaguars -3 vs. Browns
49ers -5.5 vs. Vikings
Patriots +3.5 vs. Seahawks
Jets -3.5 vs. Titans
Giants +1.5 vs. Commanders
Rams +1 vs. Cardinals
Bengals +5.5 vs. Chiefs
Steelers -2.5 vs. Broncos
Texans -6 vs. Bears
Monday
Falcons +6.5 vs. Eagles
Last week: 9-6-1
Year To Date: 9-6-1
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