Interesting Thing About The AFC Championship Game

 I don't know if anybody else has noticed this, but the just concluded AFC Championship game played out scorewise, exactly like Super Bowl 38, whatever the Roman numeral for that is, between the New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers. In this case, the Kansas City Chiefs played the Patriots role, and the Buffalo Bills reprised the role of the Panthers.

It's a lesson, maybe, about going for two after a touchdown in the third or early fourth quarter when you're still a long way from knowing how the endgame is going to play out.

In the two games: the Chiefs/Patriots take a 21-10 lead over the Bills/Panthers. The Bills/Panthers score a touchdown to cut it to 21-16, and to try to make it a field goal difference, they go for two. They fail.

Then the Bills/Panthers score again to go up 22-21, and to try to extend the lead to a full field goal, they go for two again. They fail.

Then the Chiefs/Patriots get a touchdown, and it's to their advantage to go for two. It's the fourth quarter and they're seeking a 7-point lead.

They succeed, and it's 29-22.

The Bills/Panthers come down the field, though, and get the tying touchdown (with extra point) and it's 29-29.

The Chiefs/Patriots then break the tie with the winning field goal, 32-29.

Exact same scoring sequence. And look:

If the Bills/Panthers kick that first extra point, it's 21-17 with plenty of time left. They score again, kick the extra point it's 24-21. The Chiefs/Patriots score their last touchdown, but have no reason to go for two. So they kick it, and it's 28-24.

Bills/Panthers score their last touchdown and it's 31-28. Now the Chiefs/Patriots are going for the tying field goal in the last minutes, instead of a field goal to break a tie.

I've always felt that it's better to put off going for two until you have a better idea of how the endgame is going to play out. The difference between down 3 and down 4 isn't much when you still have basically a quarter or more to play, and you end up chasing that point later when you fail.

But what do I know? I've only seen thousands of endgames play out.