Week 17 In Which I Find Out How Much Football I Can Actually Watch

 AAAAANNNNNDDDDD...

...we're down to the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, when the games really matter. Well, except for those games featuring two bad teams playing out the string, and those with a bad team serving itself up as food a good team with something to play for. Sure, there could be upsets; hey, that's why we watch! Well, that, and it gives us an excuse to write crap using cool words like "penultimate."

In any case, I'm figuring on this being my last week of picking against the spread this season; week 18 are too dicey with teams being locked into playoff seedings and resting star players, and teams that threw in the towel some time ago and just want to end the season without crippling injuries. I will, however, write some sort of season-capping summary here next week (probably).

One obvious observation: we have games this week on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Opinion: teams should not be playing on three days' rest, not ever. I do believe this makes for bad games, bad TV, and possibly shortened careers among the players. Teams more often than not do not look ready to play, resulting in mental mistakes, penalties, turnovers, and injuries, and, not incidentally, me being unable to pick winners against the spread worth a shit (I think I'm 7-12 on Thursdays). This week is particularly ridiculous, most notably for the Chiefs, who played a week ago Sunday, then last Saturday, and now play on Wednesday, Christmas day. And remember, this is a team that has played a regular season's worth of extra post-season games since 2018. The wear and tear must be immense. 

It's a ridiculous schedule for a sport like football. This happens because the owners are billionaires, and if you didn't know, billionaires never think they are making enough money.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills have not played a game on a day other than Sunday since October 14. They had their bye week just before Thanksgiving, and finish with games against New England (last Sunday), the Jets, and New England again, all bad teams, all the while fighting the Chiefs for the number one seed. Ack.

So I don't want to hear any conspiracy bullshit about the league favoring the Chiefs and rigging the games. They certainly didn't rig the schedule, at least not in the Chiefs' favor. Take your flat earth crap elsewhere, please. It's just not cute anymore.

Wednesday

Steelers +2.5 vs. Chiefs

Ravens -5.5 vs. Texans

Thursday 

Bears +3.5 vs. Seahawks

Saturday

Chargers -4 vs. Patriots

Bengals -3 vs. Broncos

Rams -6.5 vs. Cardinals

Sunday

Giants +8 vs. Colts

Bills -9.5 vs. Jets

Jaguars -1 vs. Titans

Raiders -1.5 vs. Saints

Panthers +8 vs. Buccaneers

Cowboys +9.5 vs. Eagles

Dolphins -6.5 vs. Browns

Packers +1 vs. Vikings

Commanders -4.5 vs. Falcons

Monday

Lions -3.5 vs. 49ers

Last week: 9-6-1

Season to date: 132-103-5

Week 16 Picks And Learning To Stop Believing In Losers

 Not a lot to complain about with last week's results; I went 9-7 and picked up two more games on the top guy at CBS Sports (I'm now up five) and suffered no brutal last second back door covers or the like. I was kind of kicking myself a little for picking the Giants, Patriots and Raiders to cover spreads despite all three being bad teams, but I came out ahead and maybe, just maybe, learned something.

This might be the time of the season when good teams have something to play for and bad teams are simply trying to get the season over. Yeah, guys are playing for their jobs, sometimes coaching for their jobs, so no one wants to put a stinker on film, but still, what is a big upset really worth? Is that inspired effort going to be there in the fourth quarter? Also, those bad teams have 14 games on film now, so why they're bad is a mystery to no one. These puzzles have been solved repeatedly and instructions have been provided.

So, that being said, I'm mostly done picking bad teams to cover spreads, even when those spreads are kind of large, like Bills-Patriots and Packers-Saints. Normally spreads like that make me nervous, but it's crunch time now. Also, one gets a very different feeling being let down by a good team failing to cover the spread, and having a bad team that one inexplicably picked performing what should have been an utterly predictable el foldo. Yeah, done with that.

The picks:

Thursday

Chargers -2.5 vs. Broncos

Saturday

Texans +3.5 vs. Chiefs

Ravens -6.5 vs. Steelers

Sunday

Bengals -7.5 vs. Browns

Falcons -8.5 vs. Giants

Panthers +4.5 vs. Cardinals

Bears +6.5 vs. Lions

Colts -3.5 vs. Titans

Rams -3 vs. Jets

Eagles -3.5 vs. Commanders

Vikings -3 vs. Seahawks

Bills -14 vs. Patriots

Raiders -1.5 vs. Jaguars

49ers +1.5 vs. Dolphins

Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Cowboys

Monday

Packers -14.5 vs. Saints

Last week: 9-7

Year to date: 123-97-4

Week 15 Picks And I Was Right Not To Risk Actual Money On This

 Another week in the books, another week in which I'm reminded why I don't put money on these games.

A week in which I should have gone 8-5 but instead finished at 6-6-1 because of two stupid, underachieving teams folding in crunch time and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

First the Jets fail to run the clock down on a drive that resulted in a go-ahead field goal, leaving Miami time to get up the field and get a tying field goal. Then the Jets fail to keep the Dolphins out of the end zone in overtime, and a game that looked like a win for me turns into a push.

Then on Monday, which sucks anyway by definition, the Cowboys block a punt late in a tie game with Cincinnati, which should have left them with great field position for a game-winning field goal. 

Nope.

Because a Cowboys special teams player whose name escapes me (let's just call him Leon) forgets a rule I knew about when I played junior high football, tries to field the ball past the line of scrimmage, fails, and gives the ball back to the Bengals, followed by the Cowboys forgetting to cover one of the two or three best receivers in football, a win for me turns into a loss.

Yup, that's why I don't bet money. Because it's stupid, some teams are dumb, and people basically suck.

Any questions? No?

Week 15 picks:

Thursday

Rams +2.5 vs. 49ers

Sunday

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Panthers

Browns +4 vs. Chiefs

Texans -3 vs. Dolphins

Jaguars +3.5 vs. Jets

Saints +7.5 vs. Commanders

Giants +16.5 vs. Ravens

Bengals -5 vs. Titans

Patriots +6 vs. Cardinals

Broncos -4 vs. Colts

Lions -2.5 vs. Bills

Chargers -3 vs. Buccaneers

Eagles -5 vs. Steelers

Packers -2.5 vs. Seahawks

Monday

Vikings -7 vs. Bears

Raiders +3.5 vs. Falcons

Last week: 6-6-1

Season to date: 114-90-4

Week 14 Picks And How My Inner Eberflus Was Silenced

 I swear, I had the whole thing written in my head. As a way of defending myself against a really bad week of picks, I was going to channel my inner Matt Eberflus and write:

Well, I had a horrible, losing week, but I handled it the right way!

Eberflus, of course, was the Chicago Bears coach who (probably) finished his head coaching career with the worst clock management failure since...well, actually, I can't think of a worse one. Any 10-year-old with a few games of Madden under his belt would have handled it better than Eberflus, whose team could only get off one hopeless play in the last 32 seconds with a timeout in their pocket.

Eberflus then compounded things by telling the press that he "handled it the right way." Then he got fired.

Yeah, had it all written in my head. Then I went and ruined it all by going 12-4 for the week, bringing my season-to-date record to 108-84-3. I am currently three games ahead of the top guy at CBS Sports.com.

The picks:

Thursday

Lions -3.5 vs. Packers

Sunday

Jets +6 vs. Dolphins

Falcons +5.5 vs. Vikings

Giants +4.5 vs. Saints

Eagles -12.5 vs. Panthers

Steelers -6.5 vs. Browns

Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Raiders

Titans -3.5 vs. Jaguars

Seahawks +2.5 vs. Cardinals

Bills -4 vs. Rams

49ers -4 vs. Bears

Chargers +4 vs. Chiefs

Monday

Cowboys +5.5 vs. Bengals

Last week: 12-4

Season to date: 108-84-3

Week 13 And My Attempt At Self-Help Advice

 A thought for this Thanksgiving:

If you're feeling down, things aren't going your way, just say to yourself: "Aw, hell. Everybody stinks. Everybody but me."

You'll feel better.

The picks:

Thursday

Lions -10.5 vs. Bears

Cowboys -3.5 vs. Giants

Dolphins +3 vs. Packers

Friday

Raiders +12 vs. Chiefs

Sunday

Chargers -1.5 vs. Falcons

Steelers +2.5 vs. Bengals

Jaguars +5 vs. Texans

Cardinals +3.5 vs. Vikings

Colts -2.5 vs. Patriots

Seahawks -2 vs. Jets

Titans +5.5 vs. Commanders

Panthers +6 vs. Buccaneers

Rams -3 vs. Saints

Bills -7 vs. 49ers

Eagles +3 vs. Ravens

Monday

Broncos -5.5 vs. Browns

Last week: 8-5

Season to date: 96-80-3

Week 12 Picks And Some Minor Venting

 Not a great week last week, but I did get back on the winning side with an 8-6 tally. And the leader over at CBS Sports.com went 5-9, allowing me to gain three games on him and pull into a tie at the top of their group of chuds making picks on every game.

Maybe I'm being unfair calling them chuds; I don't know them. Perhaps they are fine people.

But they are sportswriters by profession, so the odds are pretty good that at least some of them are brain dead fascists who began their journalism careers by shoving hatpins through their frontal lobes, eventually starting podcasts where they yell at each other angrily, as if this stuff was actually important and wasn't going to be decided on the field anyway.

But enough prologue. The picks:

Thursday

Steelers -3.5 vs. Browns

Sunday

Panthers +11 vs. Chiefs

Bears +3.5 vs. Vikings

Texans -7.5 vs. Titans

Lions -7.5 vs. Colts

Dolphins -7.5 vs. Patriots

Buccaneers -6 vs. Giants

Commanders -10.5 vs. Cowboys

Broncos -6 vs. Raiders

49ers +2 vs. Packers

Cardinals -1.5 vs. Seahawks

Eagles -3 vs. Rams

Monday

Ravens -3 vs. Chargers

Last week: 8-6

Season to date: 88-75-3

Week 11 Picks With Bonus 40-Year-Old Movie Reference

We're into the second half of the season, and I seem to be sinking down into the realm of the mediocre, with a 6-8 week.

I'm totally OK with that, though. I love the mediocre! They love me! I am their patron saint!

(Stands up, faces crowd)

I ABSOLVE YOU!!!!!!

Sorry, it's been a weird couple of weeks.

The picks:

Thursday

Eagles -4 vs. Commanders

Sunday

Bears +5.5 vs. Packers

Jaguars +14 vs. Lions

Raiders +7.5 vs. Dolphins

Patriots +4.5 vs. Rams

Saints -1 vs. Browns

Steelers +3 vs. Ravens

Vikings -6 vs. Titans

Jets -4 vs. Colts

Broncos -2.5 vs. Falcons

49ers -6.5 vs. Seahawks

Bills -2.5 vs. Chiefs

Chargers -1.5 vs. Bengals

Monday

Cowboys +7.5 vs. Texans

Last week: 6-8

Season to date: 80-69-3 

Week 10 Picks, And What Else Is There To Say?

Thursday

Ravens -6.5 vs. Bengals

Sunday

Panthers +5.5 vs. Giants

Bears -6 vs. Patriots

Bills -3.5 vs. Colts

Vikings -4.5 vs. Jaguars

Broncos +8.5 vs. Chiefs

Falcons -3.5 vs. Saints

Commanders -3 vs. Steelers

Chargers -7.5 vs. Titans

Jets +1 vs. Cardinals

Eagles -7.5 vs. Cowboys

49ers -5.5 vs. Buccaneers

Lions -3.5 vs. Texans

Monday

Rams -1 vs. Dolphins

Last week: 7-8

Season to date: 74-61-3

It's Week Nine, And Do You Know Where Your Defensive Back Is?

 I may have had my sixth winning week out of eight, and I may be 14 games above .500 on the year, and yet...

Last Sunday gave us a quintessential example of why I don't put money on these picks, despite some evidence that I'm reasonably good at making them, and could conceivably be making money on this.

The Chicago Bears score a touchdown, get the 2-point conversion, they're up three, covering the spread, just like I predicted they would. It's all good, 20 seconds left, another winner for me. Yay!

Then the Commanders line up, while a Bears defender is jawing with fans, the QB tosses one desperate heave that doesn't even reach the end zone, but gets tipped into the hands of a receiver who was allowed to slip behind everybody, and it's a touchdown, a two-game swing, a $210 swing (if you're betting $110 to win $100). Gah.

The only good thing that came out of it for me is that it gives me a chance to use the word "quintessential," and show that Aaron Rodgers has nothing on me when it comes to vocabulary words.

Speaking of Rodgers, I've said it before and I'll say it again: when you're a Jet, you're a Jet all the way.

Week nine picks:

Thursday

Texans +1.5 vs. Jets

Sunday

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Falcons

Broncos +9.5 vs. Ravens

Bills -6 vs. Dolphins

Panthers +7 vs. Saints

Bengals -7.5 vs. Raiders

Chargers -2 vs. Browns

Commanders -3.5 vs. Giants

Patriots +3.5 vs. Titans

Bears +1 vs. Cardinals

Eagles -7.5 vs. Jaguars

Packers +3.5 vs. Lions

Rams -2 vs. Seahawks

Colts +5.5 vs. Vikings

Monday

Buccaneers +8.5 vs. Chiefs

Last week: 9-7

Season to date: 67-53-3

Week Eight NFL Picks With Slight Tangent

 Another middling week, going 8-7 with my picks in week seven. Whatever, I'll take it. 

That makes five winning weeks (moneywise, had I bet money) out of seven. And one of the losing weeks was 8-8.

I do have one guy at CBS Sports.com breathing down my neck now. He's on a hot streak, and is only a game behind me. That qualifies as stress in my life, actually. Have I mentioned how much I hate stress?

I'm not sure the new kickoffs will ever not look weird to me. Announcers were heard recently trying to claim that it has had the effect of adding excitement and playmaking to the game where there wasn't much before. Their evidence was that the average starting field position was at the 25 yard line of the receiving team last year, and it's up to the 30 this year.

Yeah. I'm sure it's a coincidence that last year a touchback brought the ball out to the 25, and that was changed to the 30 for this season.

But it's also for player safety, which I guess I can get behind. It's sad that they've mostly eliminated the onside kick from the game (although there was a successful one last weekend) and completely eliminated the surprise onside kick, but again, player safety, right?

But why, then, add a 17th game? Why not go back to 16? Or 14? Why add playoff games?

Because the owners are billionaires, and one thing I know about billionaires, they never think they're making enough money. Because, I assume, they have gaping holes where their souls are supposed to be, or whatever the non-dualist equivalent of a soul is.

But I seem to have wandered a bit. Week eight picks:

Thursday

Vikings -3 vs. Rams

Sunday

Ravens -9.5 vs. Browns

Lions -11 vs. Titans

Texans -6 vs. Colts

Packers -4.5 vs. Jaguars

Cardinals +3 vs. Dolphins

Jets -7 vs. Patriots

Falcons -2.5 vs. Buccaneers

Bengals -2.5 vs. Eagles

Chargers -7.5 vs. Saints

Bills -3 vs. Seahawks

Bears -2.5 vs. Commanders

Broncos -8.5 vs. Panthers

Raiders +9.5 vs. Chiefs

49ers -4.5 vs. Cowboys

Monday

Steelers -6.5 vs. Giants

Last week: 8-7

Season to date: 58-46-3

Week Seven and the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

 Another football weekend is almost here, so it's time for me to take five minutes and make my football picks.

Yeah, I said weekend. I'm retired, and if I say the weekend starts Thursday night, then that's the reality.

And yes, I really do make my picks in roughly five minutes. That's the reason why I don't do like so many others and list the reasons for my picks and pontificate a lot. I don't really think about reasons.

I'm always kind of amused to listen to or read guys who explain, often with great enthusiasm, why they are picking so-and-so to win or cover. I'm especially amused by the guys who use gambling history in their explanations--"They've failed to cover spreads of eight or more on the road in division games five of the last seven" or somesuch. 

I think generally they're picking much like I do, with a gut feeling, an idea of who's good and who's overvalued, and a distaste for giving away too many points. Then they look for reasons.

Logically, it's called the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Take the shot, and wherever you hit, that's where you draw the target. Not sure why we're picking on Texas here, but why not? It's Texas.

I should also mention here that I'm not planning on making picks the final week of the regular season, due to teams so often resting players for the playoffs. Nor will I be picking during the playoffs, as I've discovered that (even without betting any money) making these picks changes how I watch games. And I'm not sure I like that.

But on to the picks themselves. Last week, starting with the Thursday game, the first five final scores that came in were losers for me. Things looked bleak, although I did have a couple of probable winners still in progress.

And eight of the last nine went my way. I finished 8-6 for the week and am now at 50-39-3 on the season. I am four games ahead of the top guys at CBS Sports.com.

Thursday

Broncos -2.5 vs. Saints

Sunday

Patriots +5.5 vs. Jaguars

Falcons -3 vs. Seahawks

Titans +9 vs. Bills

Bengals -6 vs. Browns

Packers -3 vs. Texans

Colts -3.5 vs. Dolphins

Lions +2.5 vs. Vikings

Eagles -3 vs. Giants

Raiders +7 vs. Rams

Commanders -8 vs. Panthers

49ers -1.5 vs. Chiefs

Jets -1.5 vs. Steelers

Monday

Ravens -3.5 vs. Buccaneers

Chargers -2.5 vs. Cardinals

Last week: 8-6

Season to date: 50-39-3

Well, That Was a Good Week

 It's almost like I know what I'm talking about here.

Then again, another week is almost upon us, and another 5-11 debacle is always a possibility. Like they say, on any given Sunday (or Thursday or Monday or the occasional Friday)...

Still, going 10-3-1 against the spread is pretty damn good. Good enough to raise my record for the season to 42-33-3, giving me a four game lead over the top guy, Pete Prisco, at CBS sports.com. Suck it, Pete.

Let's get to it:

Thursday

Seahawks +3.5 vs. 49ers

Sunday

Jaguars +2.5 vs. Bears

Commanders +6.5 vs. Ravens

Cardinals +5 vs. Packers

Patriots +7 vs. Texans

Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Saints

Colts -1 vs. Titans

Browns +8.5 vs. Eagles

Chargers -3 vs. Broncos

Steelers -3 vs. Raiders

Falcons -6 vs. Panthers

Cowboys +3.5 vs. Lions

Bengals -3.5 vs. Giants

Monday

Bills -2.5 vs. Jets

Last week: 10-3-1

Season to date: 42-33-3

Week Five Picks For You To Ignore

 I'm not going to get wordy today, or wax philosophical, or even opine about football much, as I just got my COVID jab yesterday, and my arm hurts.

Suffice it to say, I went 8-8 last week, which is mediocre, but it was enough to keep me over .500 on the year, and still leading all those guys at the CBS Sports website. I regard them as my competition, since I'm not actually gambling on this stuff, need to find some fun in it somehow, and CBS has eight guys also picking all the games and has no paywall.

I know these guys are mere sportswriters, and not professional gamblers, but I'm pretty sure they watch more games and game film than I do, and spend more time thinking and keeping up with injury reports and so forth.

So how the hell did one of them go 3-13 last week?

My worst week ever at this, I went 4-9. That was last year, a year in which I went 64-53-2 over eight weeks. 

No further ado:

Thursday

Falcons -1.5 vs. Buccaneers

Sunday

Vikings -2.5 vs. Jets

Bears -4 vs. Panthers

Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals

Bills -1 vs. Texans

Jaguars -3 vs. Colts

Dolphins +1 vs. Patriots

Commanders -3 vs. Browns

49ers -7.5 vs. Cardinals

Packers -3.5 vs. Rams

Broncos -3 vs. Raiders

Giants +6 vs. Seahawks

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Steelers

Monday

Saints +5 vs. Chiefs

Last week: 8-8

Season to date: 32-30-2

I Will Not Be Taking Questions Regarding Week Three

 We're on to week four.

Thursday

Cowboys -4.5 vs. Giants

Sunday

Falcons -1.5 vs. Saints

Bengals -4.5 vs. Panthers

Rams +3 vs. Bears

Vikings +2.5 vs. Packers

Texans -6.5 vs. Jaguars

Steelers -2 vs. Colts

Jets -7 vs. Broncos

Eagles -2.5 vs. Buccaneers

Cardinals -3.5 vs. Commanders

Patriots +10 vs. 49ers

Chargers +8 vs. Chiefs

Raiders -1 vs. Browns

Ravens -2.5 vs. Bills

Monday

Dolphins +1 vs. Titans

Lions -4 vs. Seahawks

Last week: 5-11

Season to date: 24-22-2

Week Three Picks, Random Ruminations

 About halfway through last Thursday's game, watching the Bills clearly outplay the Miami Dolphins, I looked at my picks for the week and thought I had a budding disaster.

Well, sort of. I don't put money on these things, which tends to limit the damage.

But I picked Miami and gave 2 1/2 points, so that one went south pretty fast. Then it dawned on me why the Packers were three-point underdogs against the Colts.  Starting QB Jordan Love was injured. I saw the play where he got hurt, the light from the TV struck my retinas and it registered in my consciousness and everything.

Then, days later, I made my picks. And I forgot Love was out, and that Malik Willis, awful with the Titans last year, would be starting. I forgot because I'm an idiot, apparently.

Should I change the pick? The game was still days away. I make my own rules here, it's my damn blog, and nobody is reading it, anyway. What's the harm? The game hasn't started.

Nope. I'm not going to change anything past the beginning of the first game of the week, usually Thursday, so as to leave the date & time of the post as it was. I rode with the Packers pick, and surprise, I won. Or they won, in another, more accurate way of looking at it.

Not only was the week not a disaster, but I went 10-5-1 against the spread (ATS) to up my record for the year to date to 19-11-2. Had I bet $110 to win $100 on each game this year, I would be up $690. So far, I've done well, beating experts at major websites and people who charge money for their insights. Suck it, experts! 

No, I am not going to bet real money on this stuff. Part of being smart is understanding how much you don't know, and every week, there will be much I don't know. The one thing I do know, however, is that I can't afford a disastrous week, like say that 4-9 week of picks I put up last year. A couple of those could do some damage with real money on the line.

Nor would I recommend, at this point anyway, that anyone put up real money based on my picks. Unlike certain celebrity politicians, I am capable of feeling guilt. I do not want the responsibility of losing some poor fool a bunch of money, unless, of course, I am the beneficiary.

So, as always, take these picks with a grain of salt. Bet no money! Gambling used to be a sin, and may be again someday!

Oh, who am I kidding. Nobody's reading this. I bet there isn't one bastard still out there, is there.

Is there?

Thursday

Patriots +6.5 vs. Jets

Sunday

Giants +6.5 vs. Browns

Bears +1.5 vs. Colts

Vikings +2.5 vs. Texans

Saints -1.5 vs. Eagles

Chargers +2 vs. Steelers

Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Broncos

Packers +3 vs. Titans

Raiders -5.5 vs. Panthers

Dolphins +5 vs. Seahawks

Cardinals +3 vs. Lions

Cowboys +1 vs. Ravens

49ers -7.5 vs. Rams

Falcons +4 vs. Chiefs

Monday

Bills -5.5 vs. Jaguars

Commanders +8 vs. Bengals

Last week: 10-5-1

Season to date: 19-11-2

Week Two Picks, Thoughts on Week One If I Think of Any

Week two of the NFL season arrives tonight, so I'm just going to keep this somewhat short and sweet in order to leave plenty of time to lay around and nap and so forth today, as any retired person should aspire too. One is never too old to have aspirations.

Week one went pretty well for me, especially considering I don't watch preseason games or read up on injury reports or even think much about the games before I make the pick. This makes that first week or two especially perilous, although it probably helps that I buy a season preview magazine every year and am aware of major trades and free agent signings. In the past I have avoided the early weeks when making picks, as well as avoiding the final week of mostly meaningless games (which I intend to do again this year). 

Anyway, I went 9-6-1 against the spread in week one. That earns me $240 in imaginary money (imaginary like Monopoly money, I mean, nothing to do with the square root of -1). Or maybe it's more like my own cryptocurrency exchange, which I have decided to call DickCoin. 

Spell check has helpfully informed me that "DickCoin" is not a word.

So how do I make my picks? I look for teams that I think are over or under valued by the public, as the oddsmakers, in their attempt to bring in equal amounts of money on both sides, will weight the point spread toward over valued teams and away from under valued teams. I tend to pick teams that got blown out the week before, assuming that these people are professionals and will play better the following week. Unless, of course, the team simply sucks (looking at you, Panthers). Also, since I believe my guidelines work slightly more often than not, I pick all the games, because the more chances I have, the more likely it is that my slight statistical advantage will show itself. That's just math.

Point spreads over a touchdown make me very nervous; picking the favorite in those games, I feel, leaves me too open to the dread "back door cover," where the loser scores a late, meaningless touchdown to cover. I forgot this in week one when I picked the Bengals, though since they lost anyway, somehow, inexplicably, to the Patriots, it didn't really matter.

Other quick thoughts: the NFL needs to do a better job vetting the fields in these international games. The game in Brazil was played on a hockey rink. The two dumbest franchises in the league right now seem to be the Panthers and the Browns, both of whom made very bad decisions at the quarterback position and may be set back for years to come. The Panthers traded what ended up being the first pick in a quarterback-rich draft for a guy roughly my size in a draft not so rich, and the Browns traded three first-rounders and gave a huge, fully guaranteed contract to a guy who didn't play for most of two years and is a total creep.

Incidentally, that makes eight first round picks the Browns have spent on quarterbacks in 26 drafts since they re-entered the league in 1999. None has worked.

Okay, not so short and definitely not sweet. Enough, then. Picks for week two:

Thursday

Dolphins -2.5 vs. Bills

Sunday

Raiders +8.5 vs. Ravens

Chargers -6 vs. Panthers

Saints +6.5 vs. Cowboys

Buccaneers +7.5 vs. Lions

Packers +3 vs. Colts

Jaguars -3 vs. Browns

49ers -5.5 vs. Vikings

Patriots +3.5 vs. Seahawks

Jets -3.5 vs. Titans

Giants +1.5 vs. Commanders

Rams +1 vs. Cardinals

Bengals +5.5 vs. Chiefs

Steelers -2.5 vs. Broncos

Texans -6 vs. Bears

Monday

Falcons +6.5 vs. Eagles

Last week: 9-6-1

Year To Date: 9-6-1

NFL Predictions for 2024

 In the interest of filling the many idle hours of my retirement, I have decided to bring my old sports blog back to life and write about this NFL season, on a regular, weekly basis, assuming my general lack of self-discipline and laziness and other personal flaws allow.

In the past, I have used this blog solely for Onion-style fake sports stories, intended as humor, and while I reserve the right to write more of those, I'm going to play it straighter here. Hey, sports is serious stuff, amiright? Also, I have another outlet, really, for my humorous stuff (see killedbyfish.blogspot.com).

I still have some work to do to clean up the silly stuff here, like the Ken doll that sort of resembles George W. Bush, to give myself a ghost of a chance of being taken seriously. I mean, who's going to pay attention to a guy who thinks he's a Ken doll who thinks he's George Bush?

Yeah, this is serious stuff. I'm going to start with my predictions for division winners, playoff teams, and the Super Bowl, and (at least for now, as I write this paragraph), make picks vs. the spread on all the week's games. Full disclosure: I never actually bet actual money on any of these games, because 1. I really hate stress, and just being right/wrong provides plenty of excitement and motivation, and 2. I don't have any actual money. Also, 3. gambling was widely considered to be sinful and a sign of depravity before it became the wholesome family activity we know it as today.

Also full disclosure: I've been a Kansas City Chiefs fan since 1968.

So without further ado, let's start with my predictions for the season.

AFC Division winners:

Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs

wild cards: New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers

NFC Division winners:

Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers

wild cards: Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams

AFC Championship: Baltimore over Buffalo

NFC Championship: San Francisco over Dallas

Super Bowl LVIV (if I got the stupid Roman numerals right):

BALTIMORE OVER SAN FRANCISCO

Just so you know: I've been making Super Bowl predictions since 1986. That's 38 years, and in that time I've correctly picked the winner four times (10.5%) and correctly picked a conference champion 15 times (19.7%). I was much better at it the first ten years, hitting on two winners and seven conference champions. The last decade or so has been rather lean.

And now, my picks vs. the spread for week one. You can pretty safely disregard these, assuredly, since I'm not even confident enough, you might say, to put one red cent on any of them.

Thursday:

Ravens +3 vs. Chiefs

Friday:

Eagles -2.5 vs. Packers

Sunday:

Falcons -3 vs. Steelers

Bills -6.5 vs. Cardinals

Titans +3.5 vs. Bears

Bengals -8.5 vs. Patriots

Colts +3 vs. Texans

Jaguars +3.5 vs. Dolphins

Saints -4 vs. Panthers

Giants +1.5 vs. Vikings

Chargers -3 vs. Raiders

Broncos +6 vs. Seahawks

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Browns

Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Commanders

Lions -3.5 vs. Rams

Monday:

49ers -4 vs. Jets

And that is that. As Dak Prescott would say, "here we go!"

I will be tabulating the results from week to week, counting up right and wrong picks, as well as pretending that I have $110 to wager on each game (winning $100 for a correct pick, losing the $110 for each incorrect one). Again, this will provide me with plenty of motivation to put a few minutes of thought into it, as I hate being wrong, hate stress, and, frankly, my make-believe money is roughly as real to me as cryptocurrency.

Thank you, enjoy the games!