Week Seven and the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

 Another football weekend is almost here, so it's time for me to take five minutes and make my football picks.

Yeah, I said weekend. I'm retired, and if I say the weekend starts Thursday night, then that's the reality.

And yes, I really do make my picks in roughly five minutes. That's the reason why I don't do like so many others and list the reasons for my picks and pontificate a lot. I don't really think about reasons.

I'm always kind of amused to listen to or read guys who explain, often with great enthusiasm, why they are picking so-and-so to win or cover. I'm especially amused by the guys who use gambling history in their explanations--"They've failed to cover spreads of eight or more on the road in division games five of the last seven" or somesuch. 

I think generally they're picking much like I do, with a gut feeling, an idea of who's good and who's overvalued, and a distaste for giving away too many points. Then they look for reasons.

Logically, it's called the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Take the shot, and wherever you hit, that's where you draw the target. Not sure why we're picking on Texas here, but why not? It's Texas.

I should also mention here that I'm not planning on making picks the final week of the regular season, due to teams so often resting players for the playoffs. Nor will I be picking during the playoffs, as I've discovered that (even without betting any money) making these picks changes how I watch games. And I'm not sure I like that.

But on to the picks themselves. Last week, starting with the Thursday game, the first five final scores that came in were losers for me. Things looked bleak, although I did have a couple of probable winners still in progress.

And eight of the last nine went my way. I finished 8-6 for the week and am now at 50-39-3 on the season. I am four games ahead of the top guys at CBS Sports.com.

Thursday

Broncos -2.5 vs. Saints

Sunday

Patriots +5.5 vs. Jaguars

Falcons -3 vs. Seahawks

Titans +9 vs. Bills

Bengals -6 vs. Browns

Packers -3 vs. Texans

Colts -3.5 vs. Dolphins

Lions +2.5 vs. Vikings

Eagles -3 vs. Giants

Raiders +7 vs. Rams

Commanders -8 vs. Panthers

49ers -1.5 vs. Chiefs

Jets -1.5 vs. Steelers

Monday

Ravens -3.5 vs. Buccaneers

Chargers -2.5 vs. Cardinals

Last week: 8-6

Season to date: 50-39-3