It's Week Nine, And Do You Know Where Your Defensive Back Is?

 I may have had my sixth winning week out of eight, and I may be 14 games above .500 on the year, and yet...

Last Sunday gave us a quintessential example of why I don't put money on these picks, despite some evidence that I'm reasonably good at making them, and could conceivably be making money on this.

The Chicago Bears score a touchdown, get the 2-point conversion, they're up three, covering the spread, just like I predicted they would. It's all good, 20 seconds left, another winner for me. Yay!

Then the Commanders line up, while a Bears defender is jawing with fans, the QB tosses one desperate heave that doesn't even reach the end zone, but gets tipped into the hands of a receiver who was allowed to slip behind everybody, and it's a touchdown, a two-game swing, a $210 swing (if you're betting $110 to win $100). Gah.

The only good thing that came out of it for me is that it gives me a chance to use the word "quintessential," and show that Aaron Rodgers has nothing on me when it comes to vocabulary words.

Speaking of Rodgers, I've said it before and I'll say it again: when you're a Jet, you're a Jet all the way.

Week nine picks:

Thursday

Texans +1.5 vs. Jets

Sunday

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Falcons

Broncos +9.5 vs. Ravens

Bills -6 vs. Dolphins

Panthers +7 vs. Saints

Bengals -7.5 vs. Raiders

Chargers -2 vs. Browns

Commanders -3.5 vs. Giants

Patriots +3.5 vs. Titans

Bears +1 vs. Cardinals

Eagles -7.5 vs. Jaguars

Packers +3.5 vs. Lions

Rams -2 vs. Seahawks

Colts +5.5 vs. Vikings

Monday

Buccaneers +8.5 vs. Chiefs

Last week: 9-7

Season to date: 67-53-3

Week Eight NFL Picks With Slight Tangent

 Another middling week, going 8-7 with my picks in week seven. Whatever, I'll take it. 

That makes five winning weeks (moneywise, had I bet money) out of seven. And one of the losing weeks was 8-8.

I do have one guy at CBS Sports.com breathing down my neck now. He's on a hot streak, and is only a game behind me. That qualifies as stress in my life, actually. Have I mentioned how much I hate stress?

I'm not sure the new kickoffs will ever not look weird to me. Announcers were heard recently trying to claim that it has had the effect of adding excitement and playmaking to the game where there wasn't much before. Their evidence was that the average starting field position was at the 25 yard line of the receiving team last year, and it's up to the 30 this year.

Yeah. I'm sure it's a coincidence that last year a touchback brought the ball out to the 25, and that was changed to the 30 for this season.

But it's also for player safety, which I guess I can get behind. It's sad that they've mostly eliminated the onside kick from the game (although there was a successful one last weekend) and completely eliminated the surprise onside kick, but again, player safety, right?

But why, then, add a 17th game? Why not go back to 16? Or 14? Why add playoff games?

Because the owners are billionaires, and one thing I know about billionaires, they never think they're making enough money. Because, I assume, they have gaping holes where their souls are supposed to be, or whatever the non-dualist equivalent of a soul is.

But I seem to have wandered a bit. Week eight picks:

Thursday

Vikings -3 vs. Rams

Sunday

Ravens -9.5 vs. Browns

Lions -11 vs. Titans

Texans -6 vs. Colts

Packers -4.5 vs. Jaguars

Cardinals +3 vs. Dolphins

Jets -7 vs. Patriots

Falcons -2.5 vs. Buccaneers

Bengals -2.5 vs. Eagles

Chargers -7.5 vs. Saints

Bills -3 vs. Seahawks

Bears -2.5 vs. Commanders

Broncos -8.5 vs. Panthers

Raiders +9.5 vs. Chiefs

49ers -4.5 vs. Cowboys

Monday

Steelers -6.5 vs. Giants

Last week: 8-7

Season to date: 58-46-3

Week Seven and the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

 Another football weekend is almost here, so it's time for me to take five minutes and make my football picks.

Yeah, I said weekend. I'm retired, and if I say the weekend starts Thursday night, then that's the reality.

And yes, I really do make my picks in roughly five minutes. That's the reason why I don't do like so many others and list the reasons for my picks and pontificate a lot. I don't really think about reasons.

I'm always kind of amused to listen to or read guys who explain, often with great enthusiasm, why they are picking so-and-so to win or cover. I'm especially amused by the guys who use gambling history in their explanations--"They've failed to cover spreads of eight or more on the road in division games five of the last seven" or somesuch. 

I think generally they're picking much like I do, with a gut feeling, an idea of who's good and who's overvalued, and a distaste for giving away too many points. Then they look for reasons.

Logically, it's called the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Take the shot, and wherever you hit, that's where you draw the target. Not sure why we're picking on Texas here, but why not? It's Texas.

I should also mention here that I'm not planning on making picks the final week of the regular season, due to teams so often resting players for the playoffs. Nor will I be picking during the playoffs, as I've discovered that (even without betting any money) making these picks changes how I watch games. And I'm not sure I like that.

But on to the picks themselves. Last week, starting with the Thursday game, the first five final scores that came in were losers for me. Things looked bleak, although I did have a couple of probable winners still in progress.

And eight of the last nine went my way. I finished 8-6 for the week and am now at 50-39-3 on the season. I am four games ahead of the top guys at CBS Sports.com.

Thursday

Broncos -2.5 vs. Saints

Sunday

Patriots +5.5 vs. Jaguars

Falcons -3 vs. Seahawks

Titans +9 vs. Bills

Bengals -6 vs. Browns

Packers -3 vs. Texans

Colts -3.5 vs. Dolphins

Lions +2.5 vs. Vikings

Eagles -3 vs. Giants

Raiders +7 vs. Rams

Commanders -8 vs. Panthers

49ers -1.5 vs. Chiefs

Jets -1.5 vs. Steelers

Monday

Ravens -3.5 vs. Buccaneers

Chargers -2.5 vs. Cardinals

Last week: 8-6

Season to date: 50-39-3

Well, That Was a Good Week

 It's almost like I know what I'm talking about here.

Then again, another week is almost upon us, and another 5-11 debacle is always a possibility. Like they say, on any given Sunday (or Thursday or Monday or the occasional Friday)...

Still, going 10-3-1 against the spread is pretty damn good. Good enough to raise my record for the season to 42-33-3, giving me a four game lead over the top guy, Pete Prisco, at CBS sports.com. Suck it, Pete.

Let's get to it:

Thursday

Seahawks +3.5 vs. 49ers

Sunday

Jaguars +2.5 vs. Bears

Commanders +6.5 vs. Ravens

Cardinals +5 vs. Packers

Patriots +7 vs. Texans

Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Saints

Colts -1 vs. Titans

Browns +8.5 vs. Eagles

Chargers -3 vs. Broncos

Steelers -3 vs. Raiders

Falcons -6 vs. Panthers

Cowboys +3.5 vs. Lions

Bengals -3.5 vs. Giants

Monday

Bills -2.5 vs. Jets

Last week: 10-3-1

Season to date: 42-33-3

Week Five Picks For You To Ignore

 I'm not going to get wordy today, or wax philosophical, or even opine about football much, as I just got my COVID jab yesterday, and my arm hurts.

Suffice it to say, I went 8-8 last week, which is mediocre, but it was enough to keep me over .500 on the year, and still leading all those guys at the CBS Sports website. I regard them as my competition, since I'm not actually gambling on this stuff, need to find some fun in it somehow, and CBS has eight guys also picking all the games and has no paywall.

I know these guys are mere sportswriters, and not professional gamblers, but I'm pretty sure they watch more games and game film than I do, and spend more time thinking and keeping up with injury reports and so forth.

So how the hell did one of them go 3-13 last week?

My worst week ever at this, I went 4-9. That was last year, a year in which I went 64-53-2 over eight weeks. 

No further ado:

Thursday

Falcons -1.5 vs. Buccaneers

Sunday

Vikings -2.5 vs. Jets

Bears -4 vs. Panthers

Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals

Bills -1 vs. Texans

Jaguars -3 vs. Colts

Dolphins +1 vs. Patriots

Commanders -3 vs. Browns

49ers -7.5 vs. Cardinals

Packers -3.5 vs. Rams

Broncos -3 vs. Raiders

Giants +6 vs. Seahawks

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Steelers

Monday

Saints +5 vs. Chiefs

Last week: 8-8

Season to date: 32-30-2