Interesting Thing About The AFC Championship Game

 I don't know if anybody else has noticed this, but the just concluded AFC Championship game played out scorewise, exactly like Super Bowl 38, whatever the Roman numeral for that is, between the New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers. In this case, the Kansas City Chiefs played the Patriots role, and the Buffalo Bills reprised the role of the Panthers.

It's a lesson, maybe, about going for two after a touchdown in the third or early fourth quarter when you're still a long way from knowing how the endgame is going to play out.

In the two games: the Chiefs/Patriots take a 21-10 lead over the Bills/Panthers. The Bills/Panthers score a touchdown to cut it to 21-16, and to try to make it a field goal difference, they go for two. They fail.

Then the Bills/Panthers score again to go up 22-21, and to try to extend the lead to a full field goal, they go for two again. They fail.

Then the Chiefs/Patriots get a touchdown, and it's to their advantage to go for two. It's the fourth quarter and they're seeking a 7-point lead.

They succeed, and it's 29-22.

The Bills/Panthers come down the field, though, and get the tying touchdown (with extra point) and it's 29-29.

The Chiefs/Patriots then break the tie with the winning field goal, 32-29.

Exact same scoring sequence. And look:

If the Bills/Panthers kick that first extra point, it's 21-17 with plenty of time left. They score again, kick the extra point it's 24-21. The Chiefs/Patriots score their last touchdown, but have no reason to go for two. So they kick it, and it's 28-24.

Bills/Panthers score their last touchdown and it's 31-28. Now the Chiefs/Patriots are going for the tying field goal in the last minutes, instead of a field goal to break a tie.

I've always felt that it's better to put off going for two until you have a better idea of how the endgame is going to play out. The difference between down 3 and down 4 isn't much when you still have basically a quarter or more to play, and you end up chasing that point later when you fail.

But what do I know? I've only seen thousands of endgames play out.

Week 18: No Picks, Some Gloating

 I'm sitting here watching the Baltimore Ravens taking care of business against the Zombie Cleveland Browns. It's currently 21-10. It's weird after all these weeks, watching a game without concern as to who I picked to win or lose or cover whatever spread, but as I said last week, anybody who bets or even expects a lot of real, competitive football in week 18 might be in need of intervention.

And now it's 28-10. Maybe I should have made my picks; there is very little going on here that interests me. Are the Browns even playing their starters? Oh, wait, that's right--they only have one.

(I call them the Zombie Browns because of the way they came back to life in 1999 and have looked like some shambling undead creature ever since.)

A win for the Ravens wraps up the AFC North division, which would mean that I successfully picked all four division winners in the AFC. On the other hand, if Minnesota wins tomorrow night, I will have entirely whiffed on division winners in the NFC. Not good.

On the other hand, here are the results of my picks in week 17, and my totals for the season:

Last week: 11-5

Season to date: 143-108-5

A good finish to a pretty good year. That's 57% correct, and anyone who followed my advice and bet $110 to win $100 on each game would have profited $2420. Or, more importantly, had I followed my advice and bet, I would have profited $2420.

I beat the top guy at CBS Sports.com by seven games. Also, surprisingly, I made a late comeback to tie Mike Florio for the season, and finished (I think it was) 14 games ahead of his podcast partner, former NFL quarterback Chris Simms.

It's possible I'm actually pretty good at this shit.

And now it's 35-10. So it goes.

One of the announcers, whose name I can't be bothered to learn, was just saying that the Browns "really need a yards after catch guy. They need to find their own version of Deebo Samuel."

One play later, Cleveland quarterback Bailey Zappe threw another interception (he had a pick six in the first quarter). Considering Zappe is at least the fourth QB the Browns have thrown out there this year, and he's awful, methinks they have at least one greater need on this team.

As I also wrote in a prior post, I won't be picking games in the playoffs, either. I simply want to enjoy the football, without worrying about back-door covers and the like.

I do still have some stake in the results, though. While my pick for the NFC championship game, San Francisco vs. Dallas, was a wash by roughly week four, my pick for the AFC was Baltimore vs. Buffalo, is very much alive, as is my pick for the winner of the whole enchilada, Baltimore. Not bad for a rank amateur who last played organized football in 1972 for a junior high that no longer exists (last I heard) and if it's re-started (which I heard it would be) would not be allowed to use its original mascot and nickname.

The Marshfield Redskins (of Coos Bay, OR) if you're wondering, which you weren't.

No, I didn't pick the Chiefs to win this year, and, in fact, I'm not sure I picked them to cover the spread even once this season. I may have mentioned this at the beginning of the season: I have been a Chiefs fan since that day in 1968 that my family stayed home from church and I discovered NFL football. The years 1972-2017 taught me to be pessimistic about my team. I'm not sure I will ever lose that. I think (I haven't really checked to make sure) that my pessimism worked out pretty well making picks this year, but the Chiefs have certainly made a hash out of my pre-season Super Bowl picks the last five seasons.

I wrote this about my history with the Chiefs back in 2011:

I Am a Kansas City Chiefs Fan

My, how things have changed. I can't change, though, being too old for that shit.

So, the Ravens won. Now we see if Cincinnati can stay in the hunt. I'm a little torn here: on the one hand I don't really want to see Joe Burrow in the playoffs, for obvious reasons. On the other, it looks like his first round matchup would be against the Buffalo Bills, the one team that actually beat the Chiefs this year.

Whatever. I'm just looking to enjoy some games. I may be back here from time to time during the playoffs and offseason, but I can't promise anything. At my age, I can't even promise to be alive, conscious or sentient very far in advance.

Ciao.

Week 17 In Which I Find Out How Much Football I Can Actually Watch

 AAAAANNNNNDDDDD...

...we're down to the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, when the games really matter. Well, except for those games featuring two bad teams playing out the string, and those with a bad team serving itself up as food a good team with something to play for. Sure, there could be upsets; hey, that's why we watch! Well, that, and it gives us an excuse to write crap using cool words like "penultimate."

In any case, I'm figuring on this being my last week of picking against the spread this season; week 18 are too dicey with teams being locked into playoff seedings and resting star players, and teams that threw in the towel some time ago and just want to end the season without crippling injuries. I will, however, write some sort of season-capping summary here next week (probably).

One obvious observation: we have games this week on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Opinion: teams should not be playing on three days' rest, not ever. I do believe this makes for bad games, bad TV, and possibly shortened careers among the players. Teams more often than not do not look ready to play, resulting in mental mistakes, penalties, turnovers, and injuries, and, not incidentally, me being unable to pick winners against the spread worth a shit (I think I'm 7-12 on Thursdays). This week is particularly ridiculous, most notably for the Chiefs, who played a week ago Sunday, then last Saturday, and now play on Wednesday, Christmas day. And remember, this is a team that has played a regular season's worth of extra post-season games since 2018. The wear and tear must be immense. 

It's a ridiculous schedule for a sport like football. This happens because the owners are billionaires, and if you didn't know, billionaires never think they are making enough money.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills have not played a game on a day other than Sunday since October 14. They had their bye week just before Thanksgiving, and finish with games against New England (last Sunday), the Jets, and New England again, all bad teams, all the while fighting the Chiefs for the number one seed. Ack.

So I don't want to hear any conspiracy bullshit about the league favoring the Chiefs and rigging the games. They certainly didn't rig the schedule, at least not in the Chiefs' favor. Take your flat earth crap elsewhere, please. It's just not cute anymore.

Wednesday

Steelers +2.5 vs. Chiefs

Ravens -5.5 vs. Texans

Thursday 

Bears +3.5 vs. Seahawks

Saturday

Chargers -4 vs. Patriots

Bengals -3 vs. Broncos

Rams -6.5 vs. Cardinals

Sunday

Giants +8 vs. Colts

Bills -9.5 vs. Jets

Jaguars -1 vs. Titans

Raiders -1.5 vs. Saints

Panthers +8 vs. Buccaneers

Cowboys +9.5 vs. Eagles

Dolphins -6.5 vs. Browns

Packers +1 vs. Vikings

Commanders -4.5 vs. Falcons

Monday

Lions -3.5 vs. 49ers

Last week: 9-6-1

Season to date: 132-103-5

Week 16 Picks And Learning To Stop Believing In Losers

 Not a lot to complain about with last week's results; I went 9-7 and picked up two more games on the top guy at CBS Sports (I'm now up five) and suffered no brutal last second back door covers or the like. I was kind of kicking myself a little for picking the Giants, Patriots and Raiders to cover spreads despite all three being bad teams, but I came out ahead and maybe, just maybe, learned something.

This might be the time of the season when good teams have something to play for and bad teams are simply trying to get the season over. Yeah, guys are playing for their jobs, sometimes coaching for their jobs, so no one wants to put a stinker on film, but still, what is a big upset really worth? Is that inspired effort going to be there in the fourth quarter? Also, those bad teams have 14 games on film now, so why they're bad is a mystery to no one. These puzzles have been solved repeatedly and instructions have been provided.

So, that being said, I'm mostly done picking bad teams to cover spreads, even when those spreads are kind of large, like Bills-Patriots and Packers-Saints. Normally spreads like that make me nervous, but it's crunch time now. Also, one gets a very different feeling being let down by a good team failing to cover the spread, and having a bad team that one inexplicably picked performing what should have been an utterly predictable el foldo. Yeah, done with that.

The picks:

Thursday

Chargers -2.5 vs. Broncos

Saturday

Texans +3.5 vs. Chiefs

Ravens -6.5 vs. Steelers

Sunday

Bengals -7.5 vs. Browns

Falcons -8.5 vs. Giants

Panthers +4.5 vs. Cardinals

Bears +6.5 vs. Lions

Colts -3.5 vs. Titans

Rams -3 vs. Jets

Eagles -3.5 vs. Commanders

Vikings -3 vs. Seahawks

Bills -14 vs. Patriots

Raiders -1.5 vs. Jaguars

49ers +1.5 vs. Dolphins

Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Cowboys

Monday

Packers -14.5 vs. Saints

Last week: 9-7

Year to date: 123-97-4

Week 15 Picks And I Was Right Not To Risk Actual Money On This

 Another week in the books, another week in which I'm reminded why I don't put money on these games.

A week in which I should have gone 8-5 but instead finished at 6-6-1 because of two stupid, underachieving teams folding in crunch time and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

First the Jets fail to run the clock down on a drive that resulted in a go-ahead field goal, leaving Miami time to get up the field and get a tying field goal. Then the Jets fail to keep the Dolphins out of the end zone in overtime, and a game that looked like a win for me turns into a push.

Then on Monday, which sucks anyway by definition, the Cowboys block a punt late in a tie game with Cincinnati, which should have left them with great field position for a game-winning field goal. 

Nope.

Because a Cowboys special teams player whose name escapes me (let's just call him Leon) forgets a rule I knew about when I played junior high football, tries to field the ball past the line of scrimmage, fails, and gives the ball back to the Bengals, followed by the Cowboys forgetting to cover one of the two or three best receivers in football, a win for me turns into a loss.

Yup, that's why I don't bet money. Because it's stupid, some teams are dumb, and people basically suck.

Any questions? No?

Week 15 picks:

Thursday

Rams +2.5 vs. 49ers

Sunday

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Panthers

Browns +4 vs. Chiefs

Texans -3 vs. Dolphins

Jaguars +3.5 vs. Jets

Saints +7.5 vs. Commanders

Giants +16.5 vs. Ravens

Bengals -5 vs. Titans

Patriots +6 vs. Cardinals

Broncos -4 vs. Colts

Lions -2.5 vs. Bills

Chargers -3 vs. Buccaneers

Eagles -5 vs. Steelers

Packers -2.5 vs. Seahawks

Monday

Vikings -7 vs. Bears

Raiders +3.5 vs. Falcons

Last week: 6-6-1

Season to date: 114-90-4

Week 14 Picks And How My Inner Eberflus Was Silenced

 I swear, I had the whole thing written in my head. As a way of defending myself against a really bad week of picks, I was going to channel my inner Matt Eberflus and write:

Well, I had a horrible, losing week, but I handled it the right way!

Eberflus, of course, was the Chicago Bears coach who (probably) finished his head coaching career with the worst clock management failure since...well, actually, I can't think of a worse one. Any 10-year-old with a few games of Madden under his belt would have handled it better than Eberflus, whose team could only get off one hopeless play in the last 32 seconds with a timeout in their pocket.

Eberflus then compounded things by telling the press that he "handled it the right way." Then he got fired.

Yeah, had it all written in my head. Then I went and ruined it all by going 12-4 for the week, bringing my season-to-date record to 108-84-3. I am currently three games ahead of the top guy at CBS Sports.com.

The picks:

Thursday

Lions -3.5 vs. Packers

Sunday

Jets +6 vs. Dolphins

Falcons +5.5 vs. Vikings

Giants +4.5 vs. Saints

Eagles -12.5 vs. Panthers

Steelers -6.5 vs. Browns

Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Raiders

Titans -3.5 vs. Jaguars

Seahawks +2.5 vs. Cardinals

Bills -4 vs. Rams

49ers -4 vs. Bears

Chargers +4 vs. Chiefs

Monday

Cowboys +5.5 vs. Bengals

Last week: 12-4

Season to date: 108-84-3

Week 13 And My Attempt At Self-Help Advice

 A thought for this Thanksgiving:

If you're feeling down, things aren't going your way, just say to yourself: "Aw, hell. Everybody stinks. Everybody but me."

You'll feel better.

The picks:

Thursday

Lions -10.5 vs. Bears

Cowboys -3.5 vs. Giants

Dolphins +3 vs. Packers

Friday

Raiders +12 vs. Chiefs

Sunday

Chargers -1.5 vs. Falcons

Steelers +2.5 vs. Bengals

Jaguars +5 vs. Texans

Cardinals +3.5 vs. Vikings

Colts -2.5 vs. Patriots

Seahawks -2 vs. Jets

Titans +5.5 vs. Commanders

Panthers +6 vs. Buccaneers

Rams -3 vs. Saints

Bills -7 vs. 49ers

Eagles +3 vs. Ravens

Monday

Broncos -5.5 vs. Browns

Last week: 8-5

Season to date: 96-80-3

Week 12 Picks And Some Minor Venting

 Not a great week last week, but I did get back on the winning side with an 8-6 tally. And the leader over at CBS Sports.com went 5-9, allowing me to gain three games on him and pull into a tie at the top of their group of chuds making picks on every game.

Maybe I'm being unfair calling them chuds; I don't know them. Perhaps they are fine people.

But they are sportswriters by profession, so the odds are pretty good that at least some of them are brain dead fascists who began their journalism careers by shoving hatpins through their frontal lobes, eventually starting podcasts where they yell at each other angrily, as if this stuff was actually important and wasn't going to be decided on the field anyway.

But enough prologue. The picks:

Thursday

Steelers -3.5 vs. Browns

Sunday

Panthers +11 vs. Chiefs

Bears +3.5 vs. Vikings

Texans -7.5 vs. Titans

Lions -7.5 vs. Colts

Dolphins -7.5 vs. Patriots

Buccaneers -6 vs. Giants

Commanders -10.5 vs. Cowboys

Broncos -6 vs. Raiders

49ers +2 vs. Packers

Cardinals -1.5 vs. Seahawks

Eagles -3 vs. Rams

Monday

Ravens -3 vs. Chargers

Last week: 8-6

Season to date: 88-75-3

Week 11 Picks With Bonus 40-Year-Old Movie Reference

We're into the second half of the season, and I seem to be sinking down into the realm of the mediocre, with a 6-8 week.

I'm totally OK with that, though. I love the mediocre! They love me! I am their patron saint!

(Stands up, faces crowd)

I ABSOLVE YOU!!!!!!

Sorry, it's been a weird couple of weeks.

The picks:

Thursday

Eagles -4 vs. Commanders

Sunday

Bears +5.5 vs. Packers

Jaguars +14 vs. Lions

Raiders +7.5 vs. Dolphins

Patriots +4.5 vs. Rams

Saints -1 vs. Browns

Steelers +3 vs. Ravens

Vikings -6 vs. Titans

Jets -4 vs. Colts

Broncos -2.5 vs. Falcons

49ers -6.5 vs. Seahawks

Bills -2.5 vs. Chiefs

Chargers -1.5 vs. Bengals

Monday

Cowboys +7.5 vs. Texans

Last week: 6-8

Season to date: 80-69-3 

Week 10 Picks, And What Else Is There To Say?

Thursday

Ravens -6.5 vs. Bengals

Sunday

Panthers +5.5 vs. Giants

Bears -6 vs. Patriots

Bills -3.5 vs. Colts

Vikings -4.5 vs. Jaguars

Broncos +8.5 vs. Chiefs

Falcons -3.5 vs. Saints

Commanders -3 vs. Steelers

Chargers -7.5 vs. Titans

Jets +1 vs. Cardinals

Eagles -7.5 vs. Cowboys

49ers -5.5 vs. Buccaneers

Lions -3.5 vs. Texans

Monday

Rams -1 vs. Dolphins

Last week: 7-8

Season to date: 74-61-3

It's Week Nine, And Do You Know Where Your Defensive Back Is?

 I may have had my sixth winning week out of eight, and I may be 14 games above .500 on the year, and yet...

Last Sunday gave us a quintessential example of why I don't put money on these picks, despite some evidence that I'm reasonably good at making them, and could conceivably be making money on this.

The Chicago Bears score a touchdown, get the 2-point conversion, they're up three, covering the spread, just like I predicted they would. It's all good, 20 seconds left, another winner for me. Yay!

Then the Commanders line up, while a Bears defender is jawing with fans, the QB tosses one desperate heave that doesn't even reach the end zone, but gets tipped into the hands of a receiver who was allowed to slip behind everybody, and it's a touchdown, a two-game swing, a $210 swing (if you're betting $110 to win $100). Gah.

The only good thing that came out of it for me is that it gives me a chance to use the word "quintessential," and show that Aaron Rodgers has nothing on me when it comes to vocabulary words.

Speaking of Rodgers, I've said it before and I'll say it again: when you're a Jet, you're a Jet all the way.

Week nine picks:

Thursday

Texans +1.5 vs. Jets

Sunday

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Falcons

Broncos +9.5 vs. Ravens

Bills -6 vs. Dolphins

Panthers +7 vs. Saints

Bengals -7.5 vs. Raiders

Chargers -2 vs. Browns

Commanders -3.5 vs. Giants

Patriots +3.5 vs. Titans

Bears +1 vs. Cardinals

Eagles -7.5 vs. Jaguars

Packers +3.5 vs. Lions

Rams -2 vs. Seahawks

Colts +5.5 vs. Vikings

Monday

Buccaneers +8.5 vs. Chiefs

Last week: 9-7

Season to date: 67-53-3

Week Eight NFL Picks With Slight Tangent

 Another middling week, going 8-7 with my picks in week seven. Whatever, I'll take it. 

That makes five winning weeks (moneywise, had I bet money) out of seven. And one of the losing weeks was 8-8.

I do have one guy at CBS Sports.com breathing down my neck now. He's on a hot streak, and is only a game behind me. That qualifies as stress in my life, actually. Have I mentioned how much I hate stress?

I'm not sure the new kickoffs will ever not look weird to me. Announcers were heard recently trying to claim that it has had the effect of adding excitement and playmaking to the game where there wasn't much before. Their evidence was that the average starting field position was at the 25 yard line of the receiving team last year, and it's up to the 30 this year.

Yeah. I'm sure it's a coincidence that last year a touchback brought the ball out to the 25, and that was changed to the 30 for this season.

But it's also for player safety, which I guess I can get behind. It's sad that they've mostly eliminated the onside kick from the game (although there was a successful one last weekend) and completely eliminated the surprise onside kick, but again, player safety, right?

But why, then, add a 17th game? Why not go back to 16? Or 14? Why add playoff games?

Because the owners are billionaires, and one thing I know about billionaires, they never think they're making enough money. Because, I assume, they have gaping holes where their souls are supposed to be, or whatever the non-dualist equivalent of a soul is.

But I seem to have wandered a bit. Week eight picks:

Thursday

Vikings -3 vs. Rams

Sunday

Ravens -9.5 vs. Browns

Lions -11 vs. Titans

Texans -6 vs. Colts

Packers -4.5 vs. Jaguars

Cardinals +3 vs. Dolphins

Jets -7 vs. Patriots

Falcons -2.5 vs. Buccaneers

Bengals -2.5 vs. Eagles

Chargers -7.5 vs. Saints

Bills -3 vs. Seahawks

Bears -2.5 vs. Commanders

Broncos -8.5 vs. Panthers

Raiders +9.5 vs. Chiefs

49ers -4.5 vs. Cowboys

Monday

Steelers -6.5 vs. Giants

Last week: 8-7

Season to date: 58-46-3

Week Seven and the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

 Another football weekend is almost here, so it's time for me to take five minutes and make my football picks.

Yeah, I said weekend. I'm retired, and if I say the weekend starts Thursday night, then that's the reality.

And yes, I really do make my picks in roughly five minutes. That's the reason why I don't do like so many others and list the reasons for my picks and pontificate a lot. I don't really think about reasons.

I'm always kind of amused to listen to or read guys who explain, often with great enthusiasm, why they are picking so-and-so to win or cover. I'm especially amused by the guys who use gambling history in their explanations--"They've failed to cover spreads of eight or more on the road in division games five of the last seven" or somesuch. 

I think generally they're picking much like I do, with a gut feeling, an idea of who's good and who's overvalued, and a distaste for giving away too many points. Then they look for reasons.

Logically, it's called the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Take the shot, and wherever you hit, that's where you draw the target. Not sure why we're picking on Texas here, but why not? It's Texas.

I should also mention here that I'm not planning on making picks the final week of the regular season, due to teams so often resting players for the playoffs. Nor will I be picking during the playoffs, as I've discovered that (even without betting any money) making these picks changes how I watch games. And I'm not sure I like that.

But on to the picks themselves. Last week, starting with the Thursday game, the first five final scores that came in were losers for me. Things looked bleak, although I did have a couple of probable winners still in progress.

And eight of the last nine went my way. I finished 8-6 for the week and am now at 50-39-3 on the season. I am four games ahead of the top guys at CBS Sports.com.

Thursday

Broncos -2.5 vs. Saints

Sunday

Patriots +5.5 vs. Jaguars

Falcons -3 vs. Seahawks

Titans +9 vs. Bills

Bengals -6 vs. Browns

Packers -3 vs. Texans

Colts -3.5 vs. Dolphins

Lions +2.5 vs. Vikings

Eagles -3 vs. Giants

Raiders +7 vs. Rams

Commanders -8 vs. Panthers

49ers -1.5 vs. Chiefs

Jets -1.5 vs. Steelers

Monday

Ravens -3.5 vs. Buccaneers

Chargers -2.5 vs. Cardinals

Last week: 8-6

Season to date: 50-39-3