Week 17 In Which I Find Out How Much Football I Can Actually Watch

 AAAAANNNNNDDDDD...

...we're down to the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, when the games really matter. Well, except for those games featuring two bad teams playing out the string, and those with a bad team serving itself up as food a good team with something to play for. Sure, there could be upsets; hey, that's why we watch! Well, that, and it gives us an excuse to write crap using cool words like "penultimate."

In any case, I'm figuring on this being my last week of picking against the spread this season; week 18 are too dicey with teams being locked into playoff seedings and resting star players, and teams that threw in the towel some time ago and just want to end the season without crippling injuries. I will, however, write some sort of season-capping summary here next week (probably).

One obvious observation: we have games this week on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Opinion: teams should not be playing on three days' rest, not ever. I do believe this makes for bad games, bad TV, and possibly shortened careers among the players. Teams more often than not do not look ready to play, resulting in mental mistakes, penalties, turnovers, and injuries, and, not incidentally, me being unable to pick winners against the spread worth a shit (I think I'm 7-12 on Thursdays). This week is particularly ridiculous, most notably for the Chiefs, who played a week ago Sunday, then last Saturday, and now play on Wednesday, Christmas day. And remember, this is a team that has played a regular season's worth of extra post-season games since 2018. The wear and tear must be immense. 

It's a ridiculous schedule for a sport like football. This happens because the owners are billionaires, and if you didn't know, billionaires never think they are making enough money.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills have not played a game on a day other than Sunday since October 14. They had their bye week just before Thanksgiving, and finish with games against New England (last Sunday), the Jets, and New England again, all bad teams, all the while fighting the Chiefs for the number one seed. Ack.

So I don't want to hear any conspiracy bullshit about the league favoring the Chiefs and rigging the games. They certainly didn't rig the schedule, at least not in the Chiefs' favor. Take your flat earth crap elsewhere, please. It's just not cute anymore.

Wednesday

Steelers +2.5 vs. Chiefs

Ravens -5.5 vs. Texans

Thursday 

Bears +3.5 vs. Seahawks

Saturday

Chargers -4 vs. Patriots

Bengals -3 vs. Broncos

Rams -6.5 vs. Cardinals

Sunday

Giants +8 vs. Colts

Bills -9.5 vs. Jets

Jaguars -1 vs. Titans

Raiders -1.5 vs. Saints

Panthers +8 vs. Buccaneers

Cowboys +9.5 vs. Eagles

Dolphins -6.5 vs. Browns

Packers +1 vs. Vikings

Commanders -4.5 vs. Falcons

Monday

Lions -3.5 vs. 49ers

Last week: 9-6-1

Season to date: 132-103-5

Week 16 Picks And Learning To Stop Believing In Losers

 Not a lot to complain about with last week's results; I went 9-7 and picked up two more games on the top guy at CBS Sports (I'm now up five) and suffered no brutal last second back door covers or the like. I was kind of kicking myself a little for picking the Giants, Patriots and Raiders to cover spreads despite all three being bad teams, but I came out ahead and maybe, just maybe, learned something.

This might be the time of the season when good teams have something to play for and bad teams are simply trying to get the season over. Yeah, guys are playing for their jobs, sometimes coaching for their jobs, so no one wants to put a stinker on film, but still, what is a big upset really worth? Is that inspired effort going to be there in the fourth quarter? Also, those bad teams have 14 games on film now, so why they're bad is a mystery to no one. These puzzles have been solved repeatedly and instructions have been provided.

So, that being said, I'm mostly done picking bad teams to cover spreads, even when those spreads are kind of large, like Bills-Patriots and Packers-Saints. Normally spreads like that make me nervous, but it's crunch time now. Also, one gets a very different feeling being let down by a good team failing to cover the spread, and having a bad team that one inexplicably picked performing what should have been an utterly predictable el foldo. Yeah, done with that.

The picks:

Thursday

Chargers -2.5 vs. Broncos

Saturday

Texans +3.5 vs. Chiefs

Ravens -6.5 vs. Steelers

Sunday

Bengals -7.5 vs. Browns

Falcons -8.5 vs. Giants

Panthers +4.5 vs. Cardinals

Bears +6.5 vs. Lions

Colts -3.5 vs. Titans

Rams -3 vs. Jets

Eagles -3.5 vs. Commanders

Vikings -3 vs. Seahawks

Bills -14 vs. Patriots

Raiders -1.5 vs. Jaguars

49ers +1.5 vs. Dolphins

Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Cowboys

Monday

Packers -14.5 vs. Saints

Last week: 9-7

Year to date: 123-97-4

Week 15 Picks And I Was Right Not To Risk Actual Money On This

 Another week in the books, another week in which I'm reminded why I don't put money on these games.

A week in which I should have gone 8-5 but instead finished at 6-6-1 because of two stupid, underachieving teams folding in crunch time and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

First the Jets fail to run the clock down on a drive that resulted in a go-ahead field goal, leaving Miami time to get up the field and get a tying field goal. Then the Jets fail to keep the Dolphins out of the end zone in overtime, and a game that looked like a win for me turns into a push.

Then on Monday, which sucks anyway by definition, the Cowboys block a punt late in a tie game with Cincinnati, which should have left them with great field position for a game-winning field goal. 

Nope.

Because a Cowboys special teams player whose name escapes me (let's just call him Leon) forgets a rule I knew about when I played junior high football, tries to field the ball past the line of scrimmage, fails, and gives the ball back to the Bengals, followed by the Cowboys forgetting to cover one of the two or three best receivers in football, a win for me turns into a loss.

Yup, that's why I don't bet money. Because it's stupid, some teams are dumb, and people basically suck.

Any questions? No?

Week 15 picks:

Thursday

Rams +2.5 vs. 49ers

Sunday

Cowboys +2.5 vs. Panthers

Browns +4 vs. Chiefs

Texans -3 vs. Dolphins

Jaguars +3.5 vs. Jets

Saints +7.5 vs. Commanders

Giants +16.5 vs. Ravens

Bengals -5 vs. Titans

Patriots +6 vs. Cardinals

Broncos -4 vs. Colts

Lions -2.5 vs. Bills

Chargers -3 vs. Buccaneers

Eagles -5 vs. Steelers

Packers -2.5 vs. Seahawks

Monday

Vikings -7 vs. Bears

Raiders +3.5 vs. Falcons

Last week: 6-6-1

Season to date: 114-90-4

Week 14 Picks And How My Inner Eberflus Was Silenced

 I swear, I had the whole thing written in my head. As a way of defending myself against a really bad week of picks, I was going to channel my inner Matt Eberflus and write:

Well, I had a horrible, losing week, but I handled it the right way!

Eberflus, of course, was the Chicago Bears coach who (probably) finished his head coaching career with the worst clock management failure since...well, actually, I can't think of a worse one. Any 10-year-old with a few games of Madden under his belt would have handled it better than Eberflus, whose team could only get off one hopeless play in the last 32 seconds with a timeout in their pocket.

Eberflus then compounded things by telling the press that he "handled it the right way." Then he got fired.

Yeah, had it all written in my head. Then I went and ruined it all by going 12-4 for the week, bringing my season-to-date record to 108-84-3. I am currently three games ahead of the top guy at CBS Sports.com.

The picks:

Thursday

Lions -3.5 vs. Packers

Sunday

Jets +6 vs. Dolphins

Falcons +5.5 vs. Vikings

Giants +4.5 vs. Saints

Eagles -12.5 vs. Panthers

Steelers -6.5 vs. Browns

Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Raiders

Titans -3.5 vs. Jaguars

Seahawks +2.5 vs. Cardinals

Bills -4 vs. Rams

49ers -4 vs. Bears

Chargers +4 vs. Chiefs

Monday

Cowboys +5.5 vs. Bengals

Last week: 12-4

Season to date: 108-84-3